Championship Probability

The PLP Championship Probability is a Monte Carlo simulation that attempts to forecast the PLP regular season. The formula uses each player’s current scores, and then simulates 15,000 possible outcomes for the remainder of the season.
The formula is based on certain factors: the average weekly score, the standard deviation of the weekly scores, the weeks played and the weeks remaining.
The simulation predicts likelihood of each player winning the PLP regular season championship, and also predicts the likelihood of each player finishing the season in the top 6 prize-winning places.
As weeks are completed during the season, the formula utilizes more data, and the predictions become more certain as the year goes on.