PLP Rules

Game Overview

  1. This is a Premier League predictor game. Participants attempt to predict the outcome of every Premier League game during the 2023/24 season. The goal is to predict the correct outcome of as many matches as possible, while at the same time trying to accumulate the most points. The participant with the most total points at the end of the season wins the PL Predictor league.
  2. The Premier League consists of 38 Matchweeks – with each Matchweek (usually) consisting of 10 games. Each participant will attempt to predict the outcome of all 380 PL matches over the course of the season.

How to Play

  1. Each week, participants are presented with the picks for the week on the “Make Your Picks” page of this website.
  2. Each game, participants have the choice of five potential outcomes: (1) home win, (2) home win or draw, (3) draw, (4) away win or draw, (5) away win.
  3. Participants will choose one outcome for each match.
  4. Each potential outcome has a different likelihood of occurring in real life – and each potential outcome has a different point value based on the points formula described below and in accordance with the percentage likelihood of the outcome.
  5. If picks are not made when the picks are available during the week leading up to the matches, the empty pick will be considered a “missed pick” and will receive zero points.

Points Formula

  1. The formula for determining points is based on a computer model called the Soccer Power Index from FiveThirtyEight.com.
  2. For every Premier League match, FiveThirtyEight uses its data to determine the percentage likelihood that each possible outcome of a match will occur: a home win, a draw, or an away win.
  3. The formula for determining the points value of a correct pick is 100 minus the percentage chance the outcome will occur.
  4. So, if an outcome has a low chance of occurring, that outcome will have a higher points value.

Scoring and Winning

  1. Points are earned by choosing correct outcomes of real PL matches.
  2. Each week, and throughout the season, points are accumulated based on correct picks. The participant finishing the season with the highest total points wins.
  3. Missed picks. Failure to make a pick will result in an automatic 0 point score for that match. It is up to each participant to make their picks on time. If you know you aren’t going to be able to make your picks for a certain week during the season, contact me and I am happy to make sure you set “default” picks or you can direct the entry of certain picks.

Scoring Example

  1. In Week 1 of the 2019 season, Crystal Palace hosted Everton on Saturday, August 10, 2019. The FiveThirtyEight model gave the following outcomes for the match:
    • Crystal Palace has a 42 percent chance to win.
    • There is a 27 percent chance that the teams will draw.
    • Everton has a 31 chance to win.
  2. There are three outcomes for the real life match, but PL Predictor offers the participant five choices to score points.
    • Crystal Palace to win: 100 – 42 = 58 points
    • Crystal Palace to win or Draw: 100 – (42 + 27) = 31 points
    • Draw: 100 – 27 = 73 points
    • Everton to win or Draw: 100 – (31 + 27) = 42 points
    • Everton to win: 100 – 31 = 69 points
  3. If a participant thinks Crystal Palace will win, they have two options. They can choose Palace to win outright in hopes to earn more points, or they can hedge their prediction by choosing Palace to win or draw, and earn less points. Obviously if an outcome is less likely to occur, a correct pick of that outcome earns more points. Safer picks are worth less points.

Competitions

  1. PL Predictor Regular Season: The PLP regular season will take place over the course of the 38 Premier League Matchweeks. The participant with the highest total score after the full season will be declared the winner.
  2. PL Predictor Holiday Tournament: The PLP Holiday Tournament is a great way to increase excitement during the first half of the season by adding a bracket-style competition to take place during the hectic Premier League “festive fixtures” period. The tournament will be single elimination over 8 matchweeks and take place side-by-side with the regular season during November and December matches.
  3. PL Predictor End of Season Tournament: The End of Season tournament takes place over the last eight weeks of the season. The first five weeks consist of a Group Stage. Winners of the Group Stage advance to the Knockout Stage of the tournament, with the final match taking place during the last week of the season.
  4. PLP Mid-Winter Competition: The PLP Mid-Winter Competition is quick competition that takes place in mid-February and awards a small prize to the participating with the highest total score over a two-week period. The purpose of this competition is to add a little excitement to the part of the season that can feel like a slog through the dark winter months.

Entry and Prizes

  1. Entry Fee for the 2023-24 season: $50.
  2. Prizes: The total prize pool for the 2023-24 season is $TBD for the PLP season. The prizes for each competition are listed below:
    • PLP Regular Season: 1st – $TBD, 2nd – $TBD, 3rd – $TBD, 4th – $TBD, 5th – TBD
    • PLP Holiday Tournament: 1st – $TBD, 2nd – $TBD
    • PLP Mid-Winter Competition: 1st – Premier League Book or Poster
    • PLP End of Season Playoffs: 1st – $TBD, 2nd – $TBD
  3. Additional “non-monetary” prizes may be announced at a later time that may include posters and/or books related to the Premier League.
  4. Finally, I have decided to implement cap on total prize money that one person can win during a single PLP season. The PLP 2023-24 prize money cap is $TBD – which is equal to TBD-times the entry fee. In the event that a person wins more than the prize money cap, those additional funds will be distributed pro rata to the top finishers in the PLP Regular Season. There are numerous reasons for the implementation of the prize money cap:
    • First, doing research on other fantasy sports leagues, the usual 1st prize is not more than 4x or 5x the entry fee. Other calculations include an average 1st prize of 40%-50% of the total prize pool. The prize money cap is equal to TBD-times the entry fee and TBD% of the total prize pool.
    • Second, although the PLP Regular Season and the Fall Tournament and PLP End of Season Playoffs are all separate competitions, there is a clear overlap in the results of the competitions because the PLP Regular Season runs concurrently to all of the PLP tournaments. Because the competitions run concurrently, this means that scoring well in one competitions automatically means positive results in the concurrent competition. This means that participants who perform well in the Regular Season will perform well in the tournaments, and vice versa. This leads to many of the same participants up for multiple prizes.
    • Finally, I want to encourage participation throughout a long 38 week season. I want to reward positive results for people throughout the season and I do not want to discourage participation for those participants who may be struggling at some point throughout the season. By ensuring that prize money is available to be spread between a few different participants, this will promote competition throughout the season.
    • If anyone triggers the prize money cap, the winnings above the cap will be passed on as follows: $TBD to the 5th place finisher in the Regular Season standings, $TBD to each of the following players, with the Premier League Poster still going to the TBD place participant.